Prospects of continuity and change of China's role in Central Asia: Case studies of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

This study evaluates the prospects for continuity and change of People's Republic of China's role in Central Asia in relation with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). There have been significant global, regional, and national events between 2020 and 2022, which might alter China's position in Central Asia. The possibility of change can be estimated by examining the developments so far. China's position in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are taken here as examples for China's role. The One Belt One Road initiative, renamed in 2016 as the BRI, presents multiple trade routes, some of which pass through Central Asia. This study evaluates whether this initiative has affected China's economic presence in Central Asia. The hypothesis of this study is that the Belt and Road Initiative did not noticeably change the trends of China's economic presence. Economic indicators show that China is nowhere dominant in the region and the growth rate is similar to previous years, before the announcement of the BRI. In order to understand the reasons, China's obstacles have been analysed through news in media and classified as popular reaction, states’ demands, and China's complaints. The recent global, regional, and national events will have some effect on these obstacles, and it can be expected that China's presence in Central Asia will grow, but there will be no exponential growth in the coming decade, as it was expected during the announcement of the BRI.